What’s the weather going to be like?
Thursday, September 27th, 2007Do you remember the hay-days of the first weather satellites going into orbit?
Back then, the word was that weather forecasting would be transformed. No longer would it be the case that the forecasters were basically guessing what the weather might be the following day nor even the following week. Oh no, they’d be able to tell you what it was going to be.
It’s been a looooong time since then, so how come the weather forecasts aren’t perfect by now?
Sometimes they are. But only if you live in somewhere that has fairly simple geography. We, on the other hand, live about half-way between the sea and the mountains. Net effect…. forecast of yesterday for today: sunny. Reality: cloudy and very humid.
What we really need are micro-forecasts for each area rather than the increasingly generalised forecasts of today. In times past, the forecasts were much better simply because the trained meteorologists presenting them took account of local geography and the like when making their forecast and would say something like “it’ll be raining across the region but in X it’ll be sunny”. Today we get flashy presenters rather than proper meteorologists so that ain’t an option for them.
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